Would a college football playoff devalue the regular season?

One of the main arguments against a college football playoff is related to the devaluation of the regular season. It comes up consistently and regularly. It also has some merit. I emphasise the word some. However, it would also increase the value of the regular season more than it would devalue it. Granted an 8 team playoff and a 16 team playoff would have different impacts, but for the reasons listed in my previous post, I'm going to focus on a 16 team playoff.

Lets take a look at the 2008 football season. We now have to figure out what would have been devalued. Next I'll review what would have stayed the same in importance. Then I'll take a look at what would have been upgraded.

Devalued--to be a devalued game, it would have to be between teams that were guaranteed to get into the playoff, or with one team with a guarantee in and didn't have much to play for. The other reason I've seen for devaluing a game is that each game doesn't matter as much because each team can lose a game or two. However, while a team from a big conference could likely lose one game and still get in, how is that different from now? A team with one loss has gotten into the championship game in more than half of the BCS years.
Under a 16 team playoff, only two or maybe three teams could get in as an at large with more than one loss. Last year only Ohio State and TCU, whose four combined losses were all to top 10 teams, would have made it. Also, 2 loss teams, even in big conferences, could easily be left out. Another factor is that seeding will be so crucially important that every team will be highly motivated to will every game. Every two loss team will almost certainly be the lower seed in a first round matchup.
And if a team does lose a game, then the rest of the season becomes even more important because they cannot afford to lose again. The lower seed would also be key because if there was a 16 team playoff there would also most likely be home field for the higher seed.

Games that would have been devalued:
1. SEC Championship game--Both teams would have gotten a bid into a 16 team playoff. The game would have only been for seeding and SEC bragging rights. This game would have certainly lost some luster. It is likely that the SEC would get both teams in more often than not regardless of the outcome of the game.

2. Probably the big 12 title game. Oklahoma would have been in at this point, but Missouri would have been fighting for their lives to get in. Very big game for Missou, but less importance for Ok because they would have been a virtual lock. The game probably looses some luster because Ok was playing for more and Missou was still highly motivated.
There will be some years that both the North and South champs will warrant an at large bid, those years the championship game could be considered to lose even more value.

3. Probably any Pac-10 game for USC before its loss to OSU. Since USC will essentially get a mulligan with a playoff, they won't have as much to worry about before a loss so the luster may drop a bit. Not a ton though because USC would be so heavily favored in just about every pac-10 game for the near future, so the games collectively don't hold a lot of interest already unless an upset begins to look likely.

4. Late season conference games between two locks. These types of games don't happen that often, but will happen occasionally. Last season, outside of the SEC conference championship game there were only two games from November on that would have included teams that both would have made the playoffs. OK vs Texas Tech and Utah vs TCU. And having gone to the Utah TCU game, there is no way that game would have been any less exciting and important if both teams still had a chance to make the playoffs, both teams would not have any certainty with a loss. Especially since both had additional games against decent opponents. The Ok-Tech game also would have been huge because it would have been the second loss Ok and Tech was seeking a number one spot. However, because both teams would still have a very good chance at making the playoff, the game would have probably lost some of its importance.

Same amount of value/excitement--These types of games will not change in intensity regardless of the playoff structure.

1. Rivalry games that have no postseason implications. Rivalry games are just so huge and it isn't just because of the post season. Some of the most exciting games are for nothing more than bragging rights.

2. Early season big non conference games. I'll use USC-Ohio State as an example. This game is early enough that it already had limited impact on the national title picture. Either team could have run the table after losing that game and still had a shot at the national title depending on the other factors that the BCS takes into account such as schedule strength, poll placement and other teams performance. A playoff wouldn't change this as the impact would also be marginalized in a similar manner to what it is already.

3. Early and mid season conference games between likely playoff contenders. These games will really determine who gets to go to a playoff. The intensity shouldn't change much.

Increased excitement--These games would have to be games that would have an increased importance during the season and a greater impact on the postseason. There would be a lot of those games.

1. Every other conference championship game. Right now the championship games in the non bcs conferences really don't hold a lot of excitement or importance nationally. This would immediately change and would have a lot of interest nationally, especially from schools that are expecting to play one of the lower seeded champs. The games themselves would have a lot of intensity because they know they are going to the big stage.

2. Any conference game from non bcs conferences where a conference contender is playing. Since any conference losses will hurt or kill a chance at an autobid, every conference that only expects an autobid will have huge meaning for the top teams in the conference. Those conferences could expect to have a much increased excitement and intensity in their own fans and regions for the teams that are competing for a berth.

3. Games involving top teams that have suffered a loss. This really would effect USC more than anyone. Last year the OSU loss was huge because they were essentially done for the chance at a championship due to schedule strength. Now, they could not suffer a second loss or they would have been out. Every game would have been huge.

4. Any game involving borderline playoff teams for the last couple months of the season. The following games all would have had a large impact on the postseason outcome where a loss by the playoff contender most often would have put them out of the running: Texas Tech-Baylor, USC-UCLA, USC-Cal, Ok-Ok St, Ohio State-Michigan, Penn St-Michigan State, Air Force-TCU, Utah-TCU, and Utah-BYU. I imagine that there are additional games that I missed, but the ones listed all would have increased in the national importance. It seems that the collective interest could easily increase rather than decrease nationwide due to the increased number of important games. A loss at this point and you are out.


So there you have it, while the argument for a loss of importance of the regular season has some merit, it would be overshadowed by the increased importance of games in other areas. College football would become even more watched, more interesting, and more fun for all of the schools that play D-1 football.

Winning a championship for the nonbcs schools is not nearly as important as the chance to win one. Revenues would increase across the board and the smaller schools would finally have the opportunity to go toe to toe regularly with the big boys. It would provide an avenue for schools and conferences to build in importance, tradition, and revenue. I firmly believe that a 16 team playoff would be amazing and only good for college football. There remains a couple of other issues including logistics and fan travel that would certainly be issues, but they could be worked out in a way that would mainly satisfy everyone, but those are issues for another post.